Thursday, June 23, 2016

Round of 16 Preview (6/25- 6/27)

Matches- Round of 16

Saturday June 25
(9:00 AM ET) Switzerland v Poland
(12:00 PM ET) Wales v Northern Ireland
(3:00 PM ET) Croatia v Portugal

Sunday June 26
(9:00 AM ET) France v Ireland
(12:00 PM ET) Germany v Slovakia
(3:00 PM ET) Hungary v Belgium

Monday June 27
(12:00 PM ET) Italy v Spain
(3:00 PM ET) England v Iceland

Current Bracket

image from wikipedia.org

Switzerland v Poland
The knockout round kicks off with a match between two group runners-up. Switzerland came second in Group A behind France, and Poland came second in Group C behind Germany. This is bound to be a close match, as these two teams are similar enough in terms of talent. The Swiss defeated Albania, and drew against France and Romania to total 5 points. The Poles defeated Ukraine and Northern Ireland, and drew against Germany to total 7 points. Both of these teams showed that they cannot be overlooked in their respective draws against France and Germany. Ultimately, this game comes down to depth. Switzerland is a stronger team, with good players all around. Poland is lead by Lewandowski and after that do not have much talent, besides a few more decent players. Even though they don't have a superstar, Switzerland's players are all good, and that will help them get a victory here.

Prediction: Switzerland wins 1-0

Wales v Northern Ireland
Both of these teams have made it to this point against all odds. No one thought much of Wales, but under Gareth Bale's leadership, they managed to win group B with 6 points. They only lost once, and that was to England by a stoppage time goal.  The Welsh are the clear favorites here, as Northern Ireland are likely the weakest team in the knockout stage. They only won one match, against Ukraine (the first team eliminated from the competition and the only team not to score a single goal in the cup). Wales should continue to roll here against their "rivals" from the British Isles, and somehow, make it to the quarterfinals without much difficulty.

Prediction: Wales wins 2-0

Croatia v Portugal
Not everyone will agree with me here, but I think the Portuguese will win this match. I know that Portugal has been having a rough tournament so far, drawing against three not-so-strong teams (Iceland, Austria, and Hungary). Even though they finished 3rd in the group, they have been gifted a spot in the knockout round because of the new tournament format. Now they face Croatia, who almost took a perfect 9 points in 3 games in the group stage, but blew a 2-0 lead to the Czech Republic. They even beat Spain along the way. Croatia got an unexpectedly tough opponent here, but they do have to face Portugal because Portugal has been underperforming so far throughout the cup. But Portugal is now showing signs of life. The attack is coming together, and the forwards are now getting along better and working together more. Portugal can turn things around if they really come to play. And with Ronaldo playing well, it's hard to count them out.

Prediction: Portugal wins 2-1

France v Ireland
Ireland is only here because of the order in which they played their Group E matches. They faced Sweden first, Belgium second, and Italy third. They drew against Sweden and were destroyed by Belgium. Then they went into their last match against Italy. Italy had already clinched first place in Group E and a spot in the knockout stage by this point, so they did not send their strongest team out there to play. Ireland managed to steal the win by a score of 1-0. If Ireland had to play Italy earlier, when they were not yet guaranteed a knockout spot, they would have lost the match. Instead they finished with 4 points and advanced as a 3rd place team. The Irish should not pose much of a threat to the French. France has yet to lose a match, as they topped Group A with 7 points. Expect France to take this by a respectable margin.

Prediction: France wins 3-0

Germany v Slovakia
In their final match of the group stage, Slovakia played against England. Slovakia knew that if they tied the match they would finish 3rd in the group and advance to the knockout stage. So they played an extremely defensive game and got a 0-0 draw against England. However, now Slovakia may regret that they did not try to win that match, as they must face defending World Champions Germany. Slovakia will be no match for the Germans, who will likely win this match handily and clinch a spot in the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Germany wins 3-0

Hungary v Belgium
Hungary somehow managed to top Group F, but instead of an easy matchup, they have to face powerhouses Belgium in the Round of 16, as Belgium came second in Group E behind Italy. Belgium began with a tough loss against Italy, but since then they have been solid, smashing Ireland, and putting away Sweden. Hungary played to a 3-3 draw against Portugal, but they probably should have lost, as their goals were rather lucky. While Hungary wants to make it to the quarterfinals, they don't have the talent and experience that the Belgians have. They may put up a decent fight, but in the end, Belgium will make it to the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Belgium wins 2-0

Italy v Spain
This is the most exciting match of the Round of 16. In a rematch of the 2012 Euro Cup final, Group E winners Italy face off against Group D's runner-up, Spain. Spain had been hailed as the favorite to win the Euros after opening the cup with 2 resounding victories over the Czech Republic and Turkey. However, in their next match, they blew an early lead against Croatia and dropped to 2nd in Group D. Because of this slip-up, they have to face Italy, who soundly defeated Belgium in their opener, before beating Sweden, and resting their starters against Ireland. I believe the Italians will take this match. Spain proved they cannot perform against the better teams, regardless of the margin by which they defeat the weaker teams. Italy is one of the best teams in the cup, and will make it to the quarterfinals, even though Spain may put up a good fight.

Prediction: Italy wins 1-0

England v Iceland
The Round of 16 concludes with a matchup between 2 group runners-up. England came 2nd in Group B behind Wales, and Iceland finished 2nd in Group F behind Portugal. Iceland are the underdogs, who managed to finish above Portugal and went the whole group stage without a loss (1 win, 2 draws). England also had 5 points (1 win, 2 draws), but they underachieved. They were supposed to finish atop the group, but could not win against Russia nor Slovakia, despite dominating all game. This time, however, they know Iceland has to win, and won't be playing for a draw. This should likely open up the match, and allow England to get the victory, and put and end to Iceland's impressive run.

Prediction: England wins 2-0

Also, check out my Copa America blog here: copa2016usa.blogspot.com

Group Stage Summary (6/10 - 6/22)

Results from the Group Stage
The Top 2 from each group advance to round of 16.
4 of the 6 3rd place teams also advance.

The 4 best 3rd place teams face the winners of Groups A-D.
The winner of F faces the runner-up of E.
The winner of E faces the runner-up of D.
The runner-up of A faces the runner-up of C.
The runner-up of B faces the runner-up of F.

Here is the blank bracket for the knockout round: (image from freelook.info)
Green means that the team is a group winner, red means runner-up, and yellow means 3rd place team.

Group A
France, Romania, Albania, and Switzerland

Matches
France def. Romania 2-1
Switzerland def. Albania 1-0
Romania and Switzerland draw at 1-1
France def. Albania 2-0
Albania def. Romania 1-0
France and Switzerland draw at 0-0

Table

 Played
 Points
 Differential
KO Round?
France
 3
7
+3
Advances
Switzerland
 3
5
+1
Advances
 Albania
 3
3
-2
3rd (maybe)
 Romania
 3
1
-2
Eliminated

Group B
England, Russia, Wales, and Slovakia

Matches
Wales def. Slovakia 2-1
England and Russia draw at 1-1
Slovakia def. Russia 2-1
England def. Wales 2-1
Slovakia and England draw at 0-0
Wales def. Russia 3-0

Table

 Played
 Points
 Differential
KO Round?
Wales
 3
6
+3
Advances
England
 3
5
+1
Advances
Slovakia
 3
4
0
3rd (maybe)
 Russia
 3
1
-4
Eliminated

Group C
Germany, Ukraine, Poland, and Northern Ireland

Matches
Poland def. Northern Ireland 1-0
Germany def. Ukraine 2-0
Northern Ireland def. Ukraine 2-0
Germany and Poland draw at 0-0
Poland def. Ukraine 1-0
Germany def. Northern Ireland 1-0

Table

 Played
 Points
 Differential
KO Round?
Germany
 3
7
+3
Advances
Poland
 3
7
+2
Advances
 Northern Ireland
 3
3
0
3rd (maybe)
 Ukraine
 3
0
-5
Eliminated
Group D
Spain, Czech Republic, Turkey, and Croatia

Matches
Croatia def. Turkey 1-0
Spain def. Czech Republic 1-0
Czech Republic and Croatia draw at 2-2
Spain def. Turkey 3-0
Turkey def. Czech Republic 2-0
Croatia def. Spain 2-1

Table

 Played
 Points
 Differential
KO Round?
Croatia
 3
7
+2
Advances
Spain
 3
6
+3
Advances
 Turkey
 3
3
-2
3rd (maybe)
Czech Republic
 3
1
-3
Eliminated

Group E
Belgium, Italy, Ireland, and Sweden

Matches
Ireland and Sweden draw at 1-1
Italy def. Belgium 2-0
Italy def. Sweden 1-0
Belgium def. Ireland 3-0
Ireland def. Italy 1-0
Belgium def. Sweden 1-0

Table

 Played
 Points
 Differential
 KO Round?
Italy
 3
6
+2
Advances
Belgium
 3
6
+2
Advances
Ireland
 3
4
-2
3rd (maybe)
 Sweden
 3
1
-2
Eliminated

Group F
Portugal, Iceland, Austria, and Hungary

Matches
Hungary def. Austria 2-0
Portugal and Iceland draw at 1-1
Iceland and Hungary draw at 1-1
Portugal and Austria draw at 0-0
Iceland def. Austria 2-1
Hungary and Portugal draw at 3-3

Table

 Played
 Points
 Differential
 KO Round?
Hungary
 3
5
+2
Advances
Iceland
 3
5
+1
Advances
 Portugal
 3
3
0
3rd (maybe)
 Austria
 3
1
-3
Eliminated

16 teams advance to the knockout round.
All group winners and runners-up advance (as seen below).



A
B
C
D
E
F
1st
France
Wales
Germany
Croatia
Italy
Hungary
2nd
Switzerland
England
Poland
Spain
Belgium
Iceland

Additionally, the 4 best of the 6 third place teams advance.
The 6 3rd-placed teams rank as follows (all have played 3 matches):
If teams are equal on points, the next tie breaker is goal differential.
If teams are still equal, the next tiebreaker is goals scored.


Group
Points
Differential
Scored
KO Round?
Slovakia
B
4
0
3
Advances
Ireland
E
4
-2
2
Advances
Portugal
F
3
0
4
Advances
N. Ireland
C
3
0
2
Advances
Turkey
D
3
-2
2
Eliminated
Albania
A
3
-2
1
Eliminated

8 teams are eliminated:
Turkey, Albania, Romania, Russia, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Sweden, Austria

16 teams advance:
France, Wales, Germany, Croatia, Italy, Hungary, Switzerland, England, Poland, Spain, Belgium, Iceland, Slovakia, Ireland, Portugal, Northern Ireland

This is the bracket for the Knockout Round:

image from wikipedia.org

And now, the real fun begins!